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The 80th Annual Academy Awards!!! February 24, 2008 - 2:40 pm 
It's a very exciting day! It's even more exciting this year since the writer's strike is officially over, and thus, the worry that the Oscars ceremony would be cancelled is 100% over as well! Posting these predictions today is proving to be quite the challenge. I have no internet access at home at the moment (stupid Time Warner), so I'm doing this from the office, which is definitely not where I want to be on Oscar Day. Anyway, this past year wasn't quite what I hoped it would be in terms of satisfying Oscar material, but there are a few gems below. My beloved 'Into the Wild' was largely overlooked, and I'm quite bitter about it. As was John Cusack's performance in 'Grace is Gone' and Ryan Gosling's performance in 'Lars and the Real Girl.' I would have liked to have seen Parker Posey get some attention for her oh-so-real performance in 'Broken English,' but I knew that one would get overlooked. Since the day is moving ahead at a rapid pace, let's get on with my predictions so I can get back in time to watch all of the fashion and arrival coverage on E! at 6 pm. Here we go!
I have to say that of all the movies nominated, I liked Juno the best. Do I think it exemplifies all that a Best Picture should? Absolutely not. I loved Atonement as well, and it's almost there, but it just doesn't deserve to win this category. I didn't quite love any of these films, which makes it a little hard to choose my pick for this category. There is no The Departed this year, no Crash, no Brokeback Mountain, no Titanic...and so on. However, one of these films stands out more than the others, and that's No Country For Old Men. If you chop it up into little pieces separating acting from directing from writing from editing, etc, this one is the one whose pieces are great all on their own. I have issues with the ending, but it's the one that should win Best Picture. It's my pick for that reason alone. Who will win: No Country For Old Men I feel really confident that this one will win. There has been buzz around There Will Be Blood and Juno...so there is potential for an upset tonight. However, the majority of the awards has gone to No Country For Old Men, and I don't think this will be the only category won for the film. I would love for the night to be a total surprise...but I don't think this category will be one of those.
I tend to take points away when an artist has already won an Oscar, and I have gone back and forth between Tommy, Johnny, and Viggo. These are the three performances that have stuck with me the most, and the ones that I most thoroughly enjoyed. Maybe the fact that I just watched In the Valley of Elah last night is the reason for my pick today. The movie is so bone-crushingly heartbreaking, and Tommy's performance is wonderful. His character is so chock full of emotion and heart, yet it's painfully subtle. I suppose many would argue that Daniel Day-Lewis' performance is that as well. Tommy did it so much better. Again, Johnny and Viggo were really great. Both of them stepped out of their element moreso than Tommy did, and for that, they definitely get kudos. Johnny sang, and Viggo convincingly pulled off a Russian accent. Good luck, boys...although this is one of two categories that is 100% predictable. Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis This is the one category this year that I'm really angry about. I do not understand the appeal of Daniel Day-Lewis. I never have, and his performance in There Will Be Blood didn't help. I don't think he was terrible, but all he did was act angry and change his accent. It's the same exact performance he gave in Gangs of New York (which also gave him an Oscar nomination). Can someone please give me a reason that I can understand, because in my opinion, all of the other nominees this year did a far better job. Daniel is going to win. I've already accepted it. I guess it's a good thing that I don't feel stronger about the other candidates, or I might have broken my TV tonight when Daniel gives his bored, tired speech. It's years like this that I wish Best Actor was one of the first awards given away. At least then Daniel's speech would be over sooner.
I recently re-watched Away From Her, and I have to admit that I thought it would break my heart a lot more than it did. It was tragic, don't get me wrong, but a lot of the emotions carried a silent acceptance that I would have expected more from. This isn't a flaw, just an example of my expectations being off. The film is very realistic, and maybe in a way that was off-putting. It touches upon a subject that no one wants to experience. I was impressed with the other performances (well, I haven't seen Elizabeth... yet), but I think Julie really nailed it. She's a seasoned pro, who just got married a few weeks ago, and I think this is defiitely her year. I have no doubt that Laura Linney and Ellen Page will both eventually win Oscars...it just won't be tonight. Marion has a very good chance of winning, and I would be just as happy with that outcome. She completely transformed herself in more than one direction. Who will win: Julie Christie Again, I feel it will come down to Julie and Marion tonight. I'm also mindful of the chance that these two ladies could split the vote, making this category an upset (with Ellen Page taking it)....but I think that's a small chance. It would be quite exciting though! I'm taking my chances and going with Julie. She has time on her side, and the Academy loves seasoned vets.
This is one of the only categories that Into the Wild got nominated for, so there's no chance I would go with any other nominee. I really loved Casey Affleck's performance, and combined with his turn in Gone Baby Gone, he's quickly becoming a favorite of mine. Into the Wild was soooooo beautiful and moving. My reaction during some scenes completely took me by surprise. I'm really upset that it didn't get more recognition. Specifically, Hal's performance was truly heartbreaking. He was raw and vulnerable, which made the performance completely beauitful (like the film). I want to cry just thinking about how genuine his character was, and how it was so perfectly executed. Going back to Casey, I'm really surprised that he didn't fall under the Best Actor category. His performance hardly seemed like a supporting one. He was really fantastic, all the way down to the boyish brooding that was necessary. I'm not upset that Javier is 99.9999% guaranteed to win. He was so effective as the violent, manic killer. That haircut has a lot to do with it. As for the other nominees, Philip was great...but he was the ONLY thing great about the film. The movie was horrible, and I know that'll work against his chances incredibly. Who will win: Javier Bardem This is the other category I was referring to above in terms of being 100% predictable. Javier has won every single award for this role, so there's not a doubt in mind about it. Of the people that I know are going to win, I really hope they've worked on their acceptance speeches, because the majority of them have been sooooo dry and boring. Granted, I know that Javier doesn't speak english...but still, work on it! This is the Oscars...not the MTV Movie Awards. Man, how I'd love for there to be a huge surprise tonight with Hal or Casey taking home the gold...but I know it's not going to happen. Congrats, Javier....maybe you can give Hal and Casey a shout-out in your speech.
Again, I know I should consider someone else since Cate just won an Oscar in this category two years ago, and because I didn't like I'm Not There. But Cate was soooooo fantastic. It's a strange feeling to like a performance so much, but seriously dislike the film as a whole. Cate is such a talented actress so it's no surprise that she's been nominated three years in a row, and I have every confidence that she'll continue to be nominated for years to come. She was playing a guy in I'm Not There for crying out loud, and she was the only woman doing such a thing in the film...AND she was the best thing about it. She did her job better than any of the men in the film (only Heath Ledger could hold a candle to her in the movie). She definitely deserves to win. I loved her scenes. I wish that she and Heath were the only ones I had to watch. Regarding the other nominees, I was really impressed with Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone. If she wins, I won't be disappointed. Saoirse was good too, although I completely hated her character. You're supposed to hate her though. I'm really confused as to why Ruby Dee was nominated. I almost feel like it was a pity vote. She is one of the first African American actresses in the business, so I really feel that she's nominated simply because the Academy finally had the chance to nominate her. She wasn't bad, but she didn't do anything. She was in the film for maybe 5 minutes, and all she did was yell at Denzel Washington. Blah. I hate when these types of nominations happen....same thing happened with Alan Alda for The Aviator. It's not fair in my book to overlook more deserving performances. Who will win: Cate Blanchett For the same reasons that I gave above, I think the Academy will be handing a very pregnant Cate her second Oscar tonight. She really outshines all of the other nominees, so it's a justified win. I like hearing her speak, so at least I can feel confident that she'll give a good speech. I wonder if she'll mention Heath. I'm not sure how I feel about it. If it seems genuine, then fine. But don't do it at an attempt for brownie points.
This isn't a category that I feel very strong about. I don't really want Paul Thomas Anderson to win, simply because I disliked the film so much. I don't necessarily feel all these nominations for There Will Be Blood are warranted. I figured it'd be fun to go with Jason Reitman. He's really young, so I know there's time for him to earn some more clout down the road. But still, Juno was good and unique. It should definitely win the Original Screenplay category. I don't quite understand all the appeal surrounding Michael Clayton either. It's your typical legal drama...not too much special about it. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is good too, and I'm sure that it was a challenge to get such a fine, realistic performance from a lead actor that can do nothing but blink one eye. I'm pretty sure that the Coen brothers will win, and they did a fine job. Who will win: Ethan & Joel Coen There isn't much to say that hasn't already been said. No Country For Old Men will probably take home quite a few awards tonight, and I do believe this will be one of them. So that's that. Not too much passion from me this year. It's the Oscars though, and I'm passionate about that. I hope to see pretty dresses and distinguised gentlemen. I want to hear some good speeches that bring tears to my eyes. Jon Steward is hosting, and I'm real hopeful about that. I think what I'm most concerned about this time around is my Oscar pools. I'm involved in two, and it would be nice to make some money this year. Ok, I gotta finish up some things at work, and then pick up my routine bottle of wine! Have fun tonight, everyone! If you'd like to contact me: tmf222@yahoo.com |
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